Internal Survey of BJD Projects Party to Recapture State Secretariat with Comfortable Majority

Author : Odisha Today Bureau | Posted on: 2019-05-15

The 2019 Lok Sabha election and Assembly election, which is one of the biggest exercises in democracy in the world, is coming to its end. As we inch closer to the result day, the idea of a BJD forming the government all over again is gaining significance yet again. A rough estimate of the election results show that the BJD sources has already predicted a seat tally of 100 Assembly seats and 13 to 15 Lok Sabha (LS) seats in the state in 2019 general election.


According to a pre-poll survey by party members, it shows that the BJD will get a clear majority in at least 90 Assembly constituencies while it will have a tough fight in about 25 seats. In the final seat tally, the party claims to garner 100 to 104 MLAs and 13 to 15 MPs in this election.


The survey claims that the state might see a tough battle against the BJP and the Congress in six Assembly seats under Koraput LS constituency. They included Rayagada, Laxmipur, Jeypore, Pattangi, Bisum Cuttack and Gunpur. However, it is not sure of retaining the Koraput LS seat.


As Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is contesting from Bijepur MLA seat in addition to Hinjili, the party hopes to grab the Bargarh LS seat. BJP’s former MP candidate and senior party leader Subhash Chauhan’s exit on the eve of election added weight to the BJD’s chances here. The party has faced a strong contest in Padampur MLA segment where BJP’s sitting MLA Pradeep Purohit is contesting.


Though BJD leaders are expecting to win the Kandhamal LS seat with a clear majority, the party has faced close contest in Daspalla, Bhanjanagar, Baliguda and Kantamal MLA seats under this LS segment.


In Bolangir LS seat also, the survey found no easy win for the BJD as the saffron party is likely to do well here. Under this LS seat, the party has faced strong contest from Opposition in Bolangir, Kantabanji, Titlagarh and Patnagarh Assembly segments.


In all Assembly seats under Nabarangpur LS constituency, the ruling party had a neck-to-neck fight with the Congress and the BJP. The grand old party has fielded its senior leader Pradeep Majhi as its LS candidate while the BJD has nominated young tribal face Ramesh Majhi for this segment.


Though there is a triangular fight for Kalahandi LS seat on the card, the ruling party hopes it will win the seat with a margin of 20,000 to 60,000 votes. The BJD is expecting to win the Berhampur LS with a comfortable margin while the party has faced strong contest in Assembly segments under it like Gopalpur, Paralakhemundi, Mohana and Chatrapur due to rebel factor, they said.


The BJD also thinks that it may lose two Assembly seats under Aska LS segment such as Polasara and Soroda where the BJP has performed very well.


The Sundargarh LS seat has witnessed a triangular fight and the BJD does not have a good chance here. Under this LS segment, the BJD may lose Bonai and Sundargarh MLA seats. While CPM may win Bonai seat, Sundargarh may go either the Congress or the BJP way.


The regional party is not expecting a win in Sambalpur LS seat as it has not performed well in five MLA segments under this LS segment. In Dhenkanal and Bhubaneswar LS segments too, the BJD will have a very tough fight in its hands. However, in Cuttack and other remaining MP seats, the survey claimed the BJD will get a clear majority.


There are 13 states (Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal) where regional parties not only have a strong presence at the state level but they also play a major role in parliamentary elections. If we disaggregate the vote share data further at the state level, we can see a rise in the vote share of most of the major regional parties.


And in Odisha’s its regional party (BJD) strength has expanded over the past two decades.

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